TELEMETRY // HASELONSOLVEDCHESSYET.COM
OFFICIAL CLOUD TELEMETRY STATUS: 0.00000000001% SOLVED

HAS ELON MUSK SOLVED CHESS YET?

⏳ TIME REMAINING UNTIL ELON'S 10-YEAR DEADLINE
TARGET: MAY 12, 2034 • 14:51:46 CDT
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May 12, 2024 (Tweet Posted) 23.2% Elapsed May 12, 2034 (Deadline)
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Replying to @BillyM2k

I have to say that if he did use Stockfish butt vibes, he deserved to win. At least once.

Computers are so much better than humans at chess, it’s absurd.

I predict that chess will be essentially fully solved (like checkers) within 10 years.

2:51 PM · May 12, 2024 · 2.2M Views
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Checkers has ~10²⁰ positions and took 18 years to weakly solve in 2007. Chess has approximately 10⁴⁴ legal positions and 10¹²⁰ possible game variations (Shannon's Number). The observable universe only has 10⁸⁰ atoms. Storing or solving the game tree would require more matter and energy than exists in 10⁴⁰ universes.
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INTERACTIVE SIMULATION 01

The "Orders of Magnitude" Logarithmic Slider

Scroll from Tic-Tac-Toe through Checkers to the cosmic absurdity of Chess. Warning: Dragging beyond Checkers (10²⁰) causes severe local reality warp and Grok compression anomalies.

CURRENT EXPONENT 10²⁰
SCALE CLASSIFICATION CHECKERS (SOLVED)
GROK COMPRESSION LOAD 0.0% [STABLE]
SOLVED (2007) TRACTABLE COMPUTATION

Checkers (English Draughts)

Weakly solved in 2007 by Jonathan Schaeffer et al. using dozens of computers running continuously for 18 years. Result: Perfect play by both sides leads to a draw. This is the ceiling of what human civilization has fully calculated.

POSITION COUNT 500,000,000,000,000,000,000 (5 × 10²⁰)
STORAGE TO CACHE ENTIRE GRAPH ~10 Terabytes (Compressed)
COMPUTE TIME REQUIRED 18 Years (Cluster of 200 CPUs)
FEASIBILITY WITH LAWS OF PHYSICS COMPLETED & VERIFIED
HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

The Elon Musk "Next Year for Sure" Tracker

Putting the 2034 Chess prediction in context with other famous timelines.

2014

"Autonomous Driving 90% Done in 1 Year"

Claimed autonomous driving would be basically solved in one year.

Still in beta 12 years later
2016

"Coast-to-Coast Autonomous Drive by 2017"

Promised a Tesla would drive from Los Angeles to New York without a single touch.

Never happened
2019

"1 Million Robotaxis on the Road by 2020"

Guaranteed 1,000,000 driverless robotaxis taking passengers by end of 2020.

Missed by 100%
2020

"Uncrewed Starship on Mars by 2024"

Claimed SpaceX would land an uncrewed Starship on Mars in 2024.

Current year: 2026
MAY 2024 → MAY 2034

"Chess Fully Solved Like Checkers in 10 Years"

Claimed computers will completely calculate chess's 10¹²⁰ variation game-tree.

Countdown active: ~8 years remaining
MAY 2034 (PREDICTED TWEET)

"Looking into it. Chess v2 will be solved next year."

Standard timeline extension protocol deployed.

Inevitable